Executive Summary
This study sets out to answer a question that becomes ever more pressing with every stage of Syria’s transition: How can the country’s transition move from a phase of mere crisis management to an institutional project of state-building? While Syria’s current arrangements, from the interim constitutional declaration to the transitional legislative council and nascent institutions, were dictated by the exigencies of the moment, sustainable stability requires a vision that moves from the logic of necessity to the logic of construction.
The study proposes an analytical framework based on five interconnected pillars of state-building: state sovereignty and the rule of law, institutional legitimacy, good governance, a productive economy, and societal trust. It then translates this framework into a vision extending to 2030, comprising seven national reform tracks, a phased roadmap for implementation, and three potential scenarios for the transition’s trajectory.
Central to this vision is the so-called “Legitimacy Ladder”: a progressive path beginning with a foundational legislative package (laws on political parties, elections, and decentralized local administration), proceeding via a drafting committee and a public referendum on a permanent constitution, and culminating in direct legislative and local elections—all followed by a presidential election under the new constitution. The study also positions transitional justice as a foundational pillar at the heart of this vision, grounded in the principle that acknowledging and redressing victims is essential to the new social contract.
The study concludes with specific recommendations addressed to state institutions, the legislative and judicial branches, local administrations, the private sector, civil society, and international partners—foremost among them the legislative package that should be completed during the current session of the People’s Assembly.